Eyes on Kenya

Its been a while since we have written something here. Well, we too, just like you, have been waiting with bated breath to see what the face of the Kenyan cabinet in the coalition is going to look like. We have let it out now, though not in full. Concerning the cabinet, The Nation and The Standard have a comprehensive listing. What is really heartening is the 13 women that are in the cabinet, the most Kenya has ever seen. Kudos to the both sides for that.

Lets try looking forward, now that the past is being pushed aside for newer memories. Lets look at the face of the world and not forget Kenya. World Bank head Robert Zoellick warned that 100 million people in poor countries could be pushed deeper into poverty by spiraling prices. From Mexico to Pakistan, protests have turned violent. Rioters tore through three cities in the West African nation of Burkina Faso last month, burning government buildings and looting stores. Days later in Cameroon, a taxi drivers’ strike over fuel prices mutated into a massive protest about food prices, leaving around 20 people dead. Similar protests exploded in Senegal and Mauritania late last year. And Indian protesters burned hundreds of food-ration stores in West Bengal last October, accusing the owners of selling government-subsidized food on the lucrative black market.

You do not need a crystal ball to predict that Kenya is on its best way to join this list. There have been starving people in times where Kibaki’s government took the credit for being East Africa’s most successful economic-forward-moving government. But with Kenya’s economy shredded, still thousands of displaced persons and fields in Rift valley neglected during the violence, the country is facing a whole different situation, almost impossible to solve without foreign help. With 100 million people facing the crisis and only some hundred million from the international community, Kenya will find itself at the end of the list if they do not shape up now and let any bits of yields from the economic restructuring trickle down to the people. Otherwise, we are going to be one hungry, dissatisfied people very soon. I have my ears on the ground for anything they do towards this.

The BBC special report takes a look at the facts and figures behind rising food prices across the globe.

With Kenya’s wheat and maize production severely tampered with due to the unrest, one can be sure that this is going to hit Kenya harder than the rest of the world. One thing though is for sure: At least 42 cabinet members are not in fear of being hungry. Kudos to your pockets, oh ye soon-to-be-hungry Kenyan taxpayers!

Berthold Brecht wrote: “However much you twist, whatever lies you tell, Food is the first thing, morals follow on.” and Bob Marley sang: “A hungry mob is an angry mob”. Haiti prooved them both right. It is time for action now, so Kenya will not turn into a Haiti like situation. While the post election violence slowed down when the political leaders saw their chances to get their share of power, a hungry mob cannot be called to order: In the Rift valley violence pangas, spears and bows were used, in the cattle fights up north, kalashnikovs were used instead. Do get going, our dear Leaders.

According to a press release from the International Medical Corps (IMC), Kenya could face a serious food shortage and subsequent large-scale malnutrition in the coming year if insecurity persists. International Medical Corps (IMC) is concerned that a shortage of maize production during 2008 and long-term displacement could severely affect the nutritional status, general health, and livelihood of the displaced as well as that of the general population. According to the Kenyan Red Cross almost 270,000 displaced are currently living in camps. A similar number is thought to be living with host families. Most of the forcibly displaced have not only lost their homes and belongings but also their economic base, which was destroyed in the violence.

“At the moment we are mainly concerned about the well-being of pregnant women, lactating mothers and children under five years old in the camps and among the host community,” says Kristi Ladd, International Medical Corps Nutrition Specialist and advisor to the emergency response team. “These groups are most likely to be the first to show signs of malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. We must have a screening and support system in place to detect malnutrition and start further interventions.”

The current situation demands continued nutritional and food security monitoring to enable aid agencies to anticipate threats and catch cases of wasting and other indications of malnutrition early on. Health providers must coordinate with agencies currently distributing food to make sure that at-risk patients are identified and are receiving supplementary food if necessary.

International Medical Corps will implement a multi-tiered approach and incorporate nutritional services into its ongoing primary health care programs. The moderately malnourished will be provided with supplemental food. Severely malnourished patients will receive ready-to-use-therapeutic-food (RUTF) either at IMC facilities or in community-based programs. International Medical Corps may also support existing facilities and government referral hospitals to ensure that malnourished patients receive the necessary care.

A Long-Term Problem
According to preliminary assessments by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Kenyan farmers are already far behind in soil preparation. In the fertile Rift Valley, post-election violence forced at least 180,000 to flee their homes — more than half of the total displaced population in the country — many of them small holdings owners or farm workers. The area, normally producing about 70 percent of Kenya’s maize crop, is still gripped in an uneasy truce between hostile communities.

With the beginning of the planting season just weeks away, many farmers will not be able to return to their plots in time. In conversations with the displaced, International Medical Corps learned that many crop growers also saw their remaining harvest stolen and their land now being farmed by members of rival groups. This development could further worsen community relations and make it unlikely that the forcibly displaced will be able to return and catch up with the planting season, which usually starts in March.

“More and more factors are emerging that threaten to prolong the humanitarian crisis in Kenya, and food insecurity is one of them,” says Edi Cosic, International Medical Corps Director of Emergency Response. “Kenyans might need our support in more sectors and for a longer period of time than initially anticipated.”

Media reports quote a joint report soon to be released by the U.N and US Agency for International Development (USAID), anticipating that 100,000 hectares may not be cultivated for the March rainy season and estimating losses of 300,000 tons of various crop harvests.

Displaced and Host Communities Affected

Most likely, increased food insecurity and malnourishment will not only affect the displaced but also the population as a whole, particularly the urban slum dwellers and households that have taken in displaced family members. The complete loss of their economic base puts significant pressure on host families, which often have to get by with a marginal amount of food while also having more mouths to feed.

The violence has also increased transport and farm supply costs, sharply raising wholesale and retail prices. The very poor and less mobile, in particular, feel the effect of rising prices.

[...]

There has been a lot of speculation how much the Kibaki government can be influenced by economic or aid sanctions.

Reuters Facts Box reports :

An EU official said on Monday the 27-nation bloc, one of Kenya’s top donors, was considering suspending all aid and imposing sanctions if mediation efforts to resolve the crisis failed. The EU provided 290 million Euro ($430 million) in aid to Kenya between 2002 and 2007. A further 383 million Euro are planned for 2008-2013. A big percentage of this goes to direct budgetary aid.

USAID is supporting more than $300 million in development activities in Kenya, including education, health, economic growth, democracy and governance, and peace and security programs.

In June 2007 the World Bank approved a credit of $80 million for Kenya to expand the fight against HIV/AIDS.

As of September 2007, the World Bank’s portfolio in Kenya consisted of 16 active operations with a total commitment of $919 million.

Lets take a further look into complementary facts:

According to the CIA World Fact Book, Kenya’s revenues as of 2007 were $4.448 billion and the Expenditures $5.3777 billion, including capital expenditures. This leaves a glaring deficit of almost a billion US Dollars. How does Kenya go about patching this? One can include the direct budgetary support by the EU. However, from the figures above, it is not sufficient to cover the deficit.

According to the 2007 budget speech,

The overall budget deficit (including grants) in 2007/08 would be KShs.109.8 billion, equivalent to 5.3% of GDP. Overall expenditures in 2007/08, excluding amortization payments and restructuring costs, will amount to Ksh.580.4 billion, about 28.2% of GDP, up from KShs.427.6 billion or 23.4 percent of GDP in 2006/07.

The government based their calculations on a number of factors. They predicted that:

1. in line with Government policy, there would be a shift of resources from recurrent to capital expenditures and core-poverty programs

2. the share of recurrent expenditure was projected to decline sharply from the level of 2006/07, while domestically financed capital expenditures were planned to increase from Ksh.54.7 billion to KSh.85.1 billion or from 3.0% of GDP to 4.1% of GDP.

3. Net external financing amounting to KShs.39.8 billion or 1.9% of GDP, was expected to cover part of this budget deficit

4. KShs.70 billion or 3.4% of GDP, to be financed through domestic borrowing (Kshs.34 billion) and net privatization receipts of about KShs.36 billion.

5. Inflation remaining under control

However not to be ignored is the fact (stated in the budgetary report) that this structure above was based on and set against the background of the medium-term macro-fiscal framework and a continuation of the recent strong economic performance, with real GDP expected to increase by 6.5- 7.0% in 2007/08, largely propelled by continued strong performance across all sectors.

With a review of the post-election situation and the loss of revenue that Kenya has undergone and is continuing to undergo, a retardation and even decline of economic growth, one can see an eventuality of a total collapse of the budget. Point five above would even bite more if the sanctions threatened by the EU are carried out. The government is heavily reliant on the world bank and its projects/ programmes. We do not know how far the World Bank would go to carry out these sanctions in review of their seeming tolerance of the government.

The fear that China would fill the gap without preliminary conditions is in our view over-rated. China’s interest in Africa so far has been hunger for natural resources. Looking again into the CIA Fact Book Kenya’s lack of natural resources stand out. And the little that Kenya has, seems to be already under China’s control: In what the East African called cynically a “an unprecedented act of generosity”, the government of Kenya gave the state-owned National Oil Corporation of China – CNOOC – exclusive rights to its hotly contested areas where oil might be found.

If a co-ordinated freeze aid to Kenya campaign is carried out by all donors in the face of the turmoil and violence, I believe the government and opposition will shape up and sit with the mediators to bring an end to the stale-mate that has cost many a Kenyan lives. It is the most effective way and we urge a consideration of this.

When it comes to the root of all evil in Africa, specialist in conspiracy theories, left wing crowds, Marxists, Anti-colonialists, development experts, Bob Geldorf, Bono, Ngugi wa Thiong’o and basically everyone else has one institution in mind: The World Bank.

And if the World Bank was aiming to demolish the rest of credibility they have, they were quite successful in doing so in Kenya. A confidential memo from the World Bank’s Kenya office that supports President Mwai Kibaki’s claim of victory in the country’s disputed elections plunged the Washington-based lender into controversy on Wednesday.

The East-African Standard gave the report as follows:

"World Bank Country Director, Mr Colin Bruce, was a man on the spot as a confidential memo he authored supporting President Kibaki’s re-election kicked off controversy in Nairobi and Washington.

The leaked January 8 briefing note, originating from the World Bank Kenya office, lays out the case for accepting Kibaki’s victory on the basis of "oral briefings and documents from senior UNDP officials" who "monitored the overall electoral process".

The memo, quoted in a story by the Wednesday issue of The Financial Times claims "the considered view of the UN is that the ECK announcement of a Kibaki win was correct".

However, Michele Montas, a spokeswoman for the UN Secretary-General, denied that the UN had adopted that position.

UNDP officials said they had neither monitored the elections nor provided any assessment suggesting a Kibaki victory."

William Wallis, Michael Holman and Krishna Guha summarize the incident as follows:
Mr Bruce’s memo has created discomfort among some senior World Bank staff who fear the bank’s analysis of the Kenyan crisis has been influenced by too close a relationship with Mr Kibaki. Mr Bruce, from Guyana, lives in a house owned by the Kibaki family. The bank said the tenancy was inherited from its previous country representative and was chosen on security grounds.

The World Bank has been criticised for maintaining its large development programme in Kenya in spite of evidence of high-level corruption in Mr Kibaki’s government. The bank says its projects are vital for the country’s poor.”

Former Western Mail journalist Sarah Elderkin yesterday said the following of her unique involvement in the dramatic political events of Kenya that have plunged the country into chaos.

“We have had a poor experience with Mr Kofuor – poor in that he was unable to make any headway at all with self-declared president Mwai Kibaki. “I attended meetings between Kofuor and our Orange Democratic Movement Party (ODM) leaders, and so am privy to what happened.

“A document to facilitate mediation had been drawn up at the initiative of Dr Collins Bruce, country director of the World Bank in Kenya, who is well known as a personal friend of Kibaki’s.

“ODM had heard that Kibaki was broadly in agreement with the document and was ready to sign. Then it was suggested by ODM that, because Kofuor was coming, the document be signed publicly and witnessed by the signatures of Kofuor, the UK and US ambassadors and the EU representative.

“After several hours’ final consultation with ODM leaders, Kofuor went off to State House to take the document to Kibaki.

“To Kofuor’s intense embarrassment, Kibaki said he had never heard of the document. He disclaimed all knowledge of Dr Bruce and refused to sign anything. Kibaki had been ready to sign a document he’d later ignore, but signing with international witnesses was a different story.”

Donaldson, a spokesman of WB's Washington headquarters, clarified to Financial Times the memo's intention was to ensure the bank staff were more efficient in presenting the news.

The World Bank's Kenyan loan portfolio is at least $1 billion. It has been criticized for extending loans despite charges of high-level corruption against the Kibaki administration.

The close connection between the World Bank in Washington under the leadership of Robert Zoellick (formerly United States Deputy Secretary of State) to the US government would explain their early acknowledgement of Kibaki by the US State Department. One might assume how great the influence of the World Bank is.

Minister of finance Amos Kimunya exchanges an agreement with Mr. Colin Bruce, the World Bank Country Director

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