Eyes on Kenya

As we previously reported, the 27^th of February is an international day of of public and online action in solidarity with the people of Kenya and to call on the Kenyan government to protect people from politically-motivated and ethnic violence.

Amnesty International is organizing streets demonstrations in the following locations on 27 February. Turn up and show your support...

Africa

Kampala, Uganda, 12:30 pm, Kololo Airstrip, corner of Wampewo Rd and Upper Kololo Terrace. A joint action with Amnesty International and the East and Horn of Africa Human Rights Defenders Project.

Americas

Washington DC, USA, 4:30-6:30pm, 27 February, - outside the Kenyan Embassy, 2249 R. Street N.W in Dupont Circle

Denver, Colorado, USA, (the sister city of Nairobi, Kenya), 6pm, 27 February, West Steps of the Capitol - Candlelight Vigil for the People of Kenya: Support Human Rights and Peace Now! [Please Bring a Flashlight or Lighter]

Los Angeles, USA, 4:30 pm, 27 February, Vigil at the Kenyan Consulate, Park Mile Plaza, Mezzanine Floor, 4801 Wilshire Boulevard

Montevideo, Uruguay, 27 February, 6.30 pm, Rambla Rep. Argentina

Mexico City, Mexico, 27 February, 18.00 - 21.00, outside Mexico City Cultural Centre [a vigil, 3 African bands and a slideshow of photos from Kenya]

Ottawa, Canada, 27 February, 4.00pm, High Commission of the Republic of Kenya, 415 Laurier Avenue East - intersection of King Edward and Laurier

Asia-Pacific

Melbourne, Australia, 6pm, Parliament House steps, East Melbourne, join us for a vigil with our message calling to: PROTECT THE PEOPLE OF KENYA

Canberra, Australia, 1pm, in front of the Kenyan Embassy, QBE Building, 33-35 Ainslie St, Civic Square. We will be writing letters to the Kenyan government in solidarity with the Kenyan people to bring an end to the violence.

Brisbane, Australia, 4pm, Reddacliffe Place, George St, Brisbane, join us for a vigil to reach out to Kenya, and have a look at our giant hand!

Europe

London, UK, 17:00 to 19:00 pm, outside the Kenyan Embassy, 45 Portland Place, W1B 1AS

Belfast, UK, 28 February, 6:30pm, Club Rooms 3 and 4, Queens University Belfast Student Union, University Road

Berlin, Germany, 27 February, 17.30 -19.30, Kenyan Embassy, MARKGRAFENSTR.63

Netherlands - events are planned in Haarlem, Rijswijk, Hoorn, Harmelen/Leidsche Rijn and Amsterdam, please contact Amnesty International's Netherlands section for more information.

According to Reuters, Kofi Annan, reporting on progress at this week’s talks, also said it was essential for the parties to form a “broad coalition” to agree on constitutional and electoral reforms going forward.

There has been optimism during the arduous task that Kofi Annan has taken upon himself in ensuring a peaceful transition and one with accord to propel Kenya from the post-election quagmire. This optimism is contagious and is slowly affecting me. However, I still retain that a lot has to be considered and changed within the political environment between those involved and Kenyans in general. This is based on an analysis of the facts surrounding the nature and evolution of political parties in post-independence Kenya.

Political Parties: A History

After independence Kenya came up with a constitution that vested enormous powers in the presidency. This included all executive power and he could appoint and fire ministers, senior administrative officers and heads of parastatal organisations. The president was also the leader of the ruling party and equally wielded enormous powers. As a result presidents were habitually re-elected, a phenomenon we now see in most of Africa of perpetual incumbency.

Post-independence KANU, especially under the rule of Moi, had always opposed a multi-party democracy using every means possible; from constitutional changes to the provincial administration, the registrar of societies, the attorney-general and courts of laws, the police and hired KANU youth wingers. In 1982, the attempts by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and George Anyona to found their own party was dealt with by a Constitution Amendment Act outlawing any legal opposition. Moi used the 1982 Coup attempt to rally loyal ethnic followers especially in the military and the police by purging it of those who would be a threat to him, successfully ethnicising it: a preacher of condemnation of ethnicism but in reality a champion of one. Detentions, deaths of more than 200 people and disappearances, the massacre of more than 3000 Somali Muslims at Wagalla airstrip by the military, all point to this fact.

Other civil society groups and organisations that Moi perceived would turn political were banned, this extending to the budding football clubs of Gor Mahia and AFC Leopards. He essentially and effectively killed opposition from civil society, leaving one full of fear, one that could not be a base for effective grounding of political parties.

During the 1990 period however, and with reference to May 1990, Kenneth Matiba and Charles Rubia were the names behind the campaigns opposing single party rule (eventually detained for their efforts) and offered much hope in multi-party political arena. December 1991 however brought Moi’s accession to change and reintroduction of multi-party politics, albeit due to extreme pressure and riots.

Matiba and Rubia’s efforts resulted in the formation of a broad coalition FORD (Forum for the Restoration of Democracy). This barely lasted a year before breaking up into FORD-Kenya headed by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and FORD-Asili by Kenneth Matiba, the latter which brokered a KNC (Kenya National Congress) spin off from it. A Prof. Abdilatif Abdala, advising one of the protagonists, would later say that they were too busy after the lifted sanction, euphorically forming (naming) political parties than laying ground for formation of political ideologies that would give strong foundations to their parties. And so political parties were formed, fragmented, spun off from each other without any guiding political principle.

“Maendeleo” (development(s)) was the catch phrase that the political parties used to woo Kenyan voters. However since lessons from the the then ruling party had taught the populace that ‘maendeleo’ essentially meant a patronage of state resources that would veer into their direction, they swallowed it hook, line and sinker, for want of being among the beneficiaries. It was a reward system that could be understood as an ethnic economic advantage as seen during the Kenyatta’s KANU regime, soon followed by the Moi’s KANU regime. This fragmentation of parties would also mean that the minds of the politicians likewise would veer in that direction each only sure about the potential votes of his community. Their expectations were of course, to be proven unrealistic.

Meanwhile, Moi was having a ball. Having the hindsight of these events, he took advantage of this fragmentation and introduced in July 1992, the 25% rule Bill, which stipulated that a winning candidate at the presidential election garners 25% in at least 5 of the 8 electoral provinces. Moi’s calculation here was that the opposition could be manipulated into disintegration along ethnic lines, making it impossible for it to beat KANU, a fact. This led to a disillusionment of the political class, distanced from objective reality, cutting deals with Moi to stay in power, thus weakening any political parties in the opposition. The ethnicity still stayed strong, and as long as they were trapped in their ethnic cocoons, Moi was happy. NDP had its support among the Luo, DP among the Kikuyu, Ford Kenya among the Luhya, the rest too small to bother him.

1997 general elections would see a realisation by KANU that the situation was not as rosy, that they would have to initiate an attempt at coalition talks with other parties. This change was brought about by James Orengo’s “Muungano wa Mageuzi” (Coalition for change), an across the ethnic strata group with similar agenda-demystifying the ideas of regional lords, and had extremely high popularity and support from the university student political groups. It was considered a serious threat. KANU sought out Kibaki’s Democratic Party (DP), then later on Odinga’s National Democratic Party (NDP). Mageuzi did raise a lot of hell, captured the public but failed. It lacked the essential ingredient of organising ideology, did not propel a leader effectively, and their goal of overhauling the state by mass revolt insurrection failed. Orengo killed it further by being too quick in shifting to Social Democratic Party (SDP).

President Moi casts his vote in the December 1997 election (c) BBC

Pre-2002 general election saw the emergence of “Breakfast coalition talks” by FORD Kenya (Wamalwa Kijana), DP (Mwai Kibaki) and NPK (Charity Ngilu) as a united front to get rid of Moi. These however were not fruitful because each of the three (with pressure from their constituents) wanted to vie for presidency and neither was ready to give in to another. However,it was enough to ruffle KANU’s feathers. Moi’s anointed successor Uhuru Kenyatta (who would enable him to continue in the post of party chairman) and it was at this point that he saw he was fighting a losing battle when he was heckled and pelted with stones in Nyanza, Nairobi and Western Province in his campaign endeavors for Uhuru. Finally the coalition of opposition around NARC with Mwai Kibaki as opposition candidate won the day, with an eventually small opposition in Kanu.

Moi and Uhuru Kenyatta by Gado

NARC evolved structures that would help organise her campaign. It set up what become known as the Summit which exemplified the emerging coalition of social groups in Kenya for national unity.
It also came up with a memorandum of understanding binding the winner to practice politics of inclusion and consultation with the other senior members of the coalition. The two NAK and Rainbow coalition partners were to share positions at a ratio of 50-50.

According to a Friedrich-Ebert Publication: To the entire nation, it was apparent that while Mwai Kibaki would be president, Raila Odinga would emerge Prime Minister following a speeded up constitution drafting process. Had the promises been honoured , it would have meant the diffusion of power among various actors and by inference the regions. However, once elections were over, and this faction had gained power, the motivation to honour their pledges dissipated. Facilitating this was the fact that the so-called Memorandum of Understanding which was negotiated outside existing state structures and was based on a mere trust, something rare among a begrudged elite faction used to politics of exclusivism. Before long the Ethnic group becomes veritable competitor to the State in its attempts to command loyalty. Unfortunately, this accentuates divisions among different ethnic groups. To cut across ethnic divide, elite merely seek to organize alliances which seek to facilitate the capture of power and in the process, access to State resources. With NARC dead, an effort towards putting into place a new coalition of parties was in the offing in the name of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

Understanding the nature of current political parties: The case of ODM

According to Mukoma wa Ngugi, asking some of the people commentating on Kenya about the differences within ODM, whether it’s a coalition or a party with a single vision, who are the main players, and the implications for peace, will yield shallow answers. Its indescribable according to an ideology, nothing compared to the clear cut differences as exist in the case say of US internal politics in the Democratic Party’s Hillary and Osama. He continues to ask “How can we agitate for peace when we do not understand the nature of the parties involved?”

There are three competing elements within ODM: the activist-intellectual left(Prof. AnyangAnyang’ Nyong’o and Salim Lone), the Moi-ist retrogressives (William Ruto), and the populists (Raila Odinga). The Moi-ist retrogressives have cost ODM a lot of political mileage. They are seen as having been responsible for ethnic violence that in 1992 and 1997 left hundreds dead and thousands displaced in the Rift Valley. The recent Eldoret church burning and cleansing took place in Ruto’s constituency. William Ruto is leading the ODM delegation in the Kofi Annan mediated talks. Raila has a solid Luo support base and youth appeal across ethnicity. Had ODM not run a campaign along ethnic fault lines, his support amongst the poor would have been solidified. Raila has all the contradictions that come with populism. Populists prefer loud rallies and protests. They want to draw violence from the state because the consequent anger unites the people and earns then international political mileage. Populists also like to “shock and awe” but end up sending mixed calls.

Mukoma further notes that a closer analysis of the two political parties finds that they are mirror image of each other. They both represent the elite of their different ethnicities, and they manipulate ethnicity to hide their bankruptcy. The prevailing ideology is ethnocracy.
He says that at the very least both the government and the opposition need to let their respective Moi-ist retrogressives go. When both sides are not swayed by the extremists, a return to the center where sanity prevails will be possible, and a political solution within grasp.

Conclusion
The lessons to be drawn from the Kenyan experience are several and include the observation that political parties in East Africa are generally fragile, lack a national outlook, are not driven by clearly differing ideologies in the context of the same State, and woefully lack a viable resource base. Kenya needs a fresh start in conceiving, feeding and maturing political parties that differentiated from each other in terms of ideology, a critical fact that would take them away from the current ethno-based party quagmire they are entrenched into. We need political parties not ethno-representatives.

Amnesty International urges Kenya’s leaders to ensure the human rights of Kenyan people are protected.

An international day of public and online action this month will demonstrate solidarity with the people of Kenya and call on the Kenyan government to protect people from politically-motivated and ethnic violence.

On 27 February, people can show their outrage at the continuing human rights abuses in Kenya in a series of events organised by Amnesty International; including an online Facebook action and a series of street demonstrations.

The disputed election of 27 December 2007 sparked an outbreak of fighting and a series of grave human rights violations. At least 1,000 people have been killed so far, while more than 300,000 have been displaced.

Amnesty International’s recent visit to Kenya found evidence of unlawful killings, the ethnically targeted forced relocation and burning of homes by armed militias, excessive use of force by security officials, sexual violence against women and girls, and violations of freedom of expression and assembly. Amnesty International has also documented death threats against human rights defenders and activists.

The death toll includes hundreds shot dead by police, who were deployed to quell the post-election violence and break up mass protests against the election called by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) opposition party.

Subsequent violence has seen increasingly organised attacks by ethnic militia and youth gangs against people of Kikuyu ethnicity, which has led to retaliatory attacks by Kikuyu militias and youth gangs.

There is particular concern at the ethnic dimension to the political violence and its possible long-term implications for Kenyan society.

Amnesty International calls on the Kenyan government to protect the people of Kenya, many of whom have endured unrelenting suffering in the last two months. Kenyan leaders must end the cycle of impunity that perpetuates the politically motivated violence in Kenya.

On Saturday Feb. 2nd 2008 a Charity Concert- One Kenya One Voice- in Boston, Ma, USA will take place at “The Roxy”. All proceeds will go to the Kenyan Red Cross. Headliner Artist Eric Wainaina and others will be performing. For more information see http://www.vumakenya.org/

On the same day a peace rally will be held in Hamburg, Germany, organized by a Kenyan culture organisation Chawema e.V.. Meeting point is the the Hamburg Main Station (Kirchenallee-Hachmannplatz) at 2 o’clock.

At 6 o’clock there will be an discussion round at the DGB building at Besenbinderhof 57a (close to ZOB Hamburg) with Emily Imunde about the present situation back home. M. J. Obeto from Chawema e.V. will moderate in both English and German.

There has been a lot of speculation how much the Kibaki government can be influenced by economic or aid sanctions.

Reuters Facts Box reports :

An EU official said on Monday the 27-nation bloc, one of Kenya’s top donors, was considering suspending all aid and imposing sanctions if mediation efforts to resolve the crisis failed. The EU provided 290 million Euro ($430 million) in aid to Kenya between 2002 and 2007. A further 383 million Euro are planned for 2008-2013. A big percentage of this goes to direct budgetary aid.

USAID is supporting more than $300 million in development activities in Kenya, including education, health, economic growth, democracy and governance, and peace and security programs.

In June 2007 the World Bank approved a credit of $80 million for Kenya to expand the fight against HIV/AIDS.

As of September 2007, the World Bank’s portfolio in Kenya consisted of 16 active operations with a total commitment of $919 million.

Lets take a further look into complementary facts:

According to the CIA World Fact Book, Kenya’s revenues as of 2007 were $4.448 billion and the Expenditures $5.3777 billion, including capital expenditures. This leaves a glaring deficit of almost a billion US Dollars. How does Kenya go about patching this? One can include the direct budgetary support by the EU. However, from the figures above, it is not sufficient to cover the deficit.

According to the 2007 budget speech,

The overall budget deficit (including grants) in 2007/08 would be KShs.109.8 billion, equivalent to 5.3% of GDP. Overall expenditures in 2007/08, excluding amortization payments and restructuring costs, will amount to Ksh.580.4 billion, about 28.2% of GDP, up from KShs.427.6 billion or 23.4 percent of GDP in 2006/07.

The government based their calculations on a number of factors. They predicted that:

1. in line with Government policy, there would be a shift of resources from recurrent to capital expenditures and core-poverty programs

2. the share of recurrent expenditure was projected to decline sharply from the level of 2006/07, while domestically financed capital expenditures were planned to increase from Ksh.54.7 billion to KSh.85.1 billion or from 3.0% of GDP to 4.1% of GDP.

3. Net external financing amounting to KShs.39.8 billion or 1.9% of GDP, was expected to cover part of this budget deficit

4. KShs.70 billion or 3.4% of GDP, to be financed through domestic borrowing (Kshs.34 billion) and net privatization receipts of about KShs.36 billion.

5. Inflation remaining under control

However not to be ignored is the fact (stated in the budgetary report) that this structure above was based on and set against the background of the medium-term macro-fiscal framework and a continuation of the recent strong economic performance, with real GDP expected to increase by 6.5- 7.0% in 2007/08, largely propelled by continued strong performance across all sectors.

With a review of the post-election situation and the loss of revenue that Kenya has undergone and is continuing to undergo, a retardation and even decline of economic growth, one can see an eventuality of a total collapse of the budget. Point five above would even bite more if the sanctions threatened by the EU are carried out. The government is heavily reliant on the world bank and its projects/ programmes. We do not know how far the World Bank would go to carry out these sanctions in review of their seeming tolerance of the government.

The fear that China would fill the gap without preliminary conditions is in our view over-rated. China’s interest in Africa so far has been hunger for natural resources. Looking again into the CIA Fact Book Kenya’s lack of natural resources stand out. And the little that Kenya has, seems to be already under China’s control: In what the East African called cynically a “an unprecedented act of generosity”, the government of Kenya gave the state-owned National Oil Corporation of China – CNOOC – exclusive rights to its hotly contested areas where oil might be found.

If a co-ordinated freeze aid to Kenya campaign is carried out by all donors in the face of the turmoil and violence, I believe the government and opposition will shape up and sit with the mediators to bring an end to the stale-mate that has cost many a Kenyan lives. It is the most effective way and we urge a consideration of this.

The two German and one Dutch journalist, Gerd Uwe Hauth, Andrej Hermlin and Fleur Van Dissel, who were arrested yesterday were released today. According to a Reuters report:

Two German men and a Dutch woman arrested by Kenyan authorities on suspicion of terrorism have been released, the German Foreign Ministry said on Saturday.

A spokesman for the ministry said Gerd Uwe Hauth, Andrej Hermlin and Dutch national Fleur Van Dissel had been released from custody on Saturday. He said he could not provide details about why they had been freed.

Pressure from many angles have been used in securing this release, especially from the foreign ministries of the concerned parties. We still however moan the fact that this kind of pressure may not be there when we talk about local media and sanctions put on them by the Kenyan government. There are tear-gassed and threatened journalists out there. Who will come to their rescue?The FCAEA released the following statement urging for freedom of the media:

Statement on violation of press freedoms and intimidation of journalists

NAIROBI, January 19, 2008– The Foreign Correspondents’ Association of East Africa (FCAEA) strongly condemns incidents of intimidation against both foreign and local journalists and the violation of press freedoms in Kenya’s post-election period.

There has been a serious curtailing of press freedoms since the declaration of Mwai Kibaki as president in the name of public safety and these are hampering journalists from proceeding with their work.

We condemn the arrest and detention of one of our members, documentary filmmaker Fleur van Dissel, for trumped up charges of terrorism. We call for her immediate release and an end to the harassment of foreign journalists simply doing their work.

The FCAEA was dismayed to see the government pointing a finger at the foreign press in newspaper advertisements, urging the international media, as well as diplomats and activists, not to give “our personal opinion or analysis” and to give “evidence” of rigging in the elections.

The international media in Kenya is playing a crucial role of disseminating and documenting the events unfolding in the post-election period and is not in any position to provide the government with evidence of vote rigging.

The press freedoms of local media have been hurt, with an unacceptable gag on live broadcasts. We have heard reports of local press members being intimidated by police and we demand that such intimidation stop.

We urge the government, the opposition and any other prominent actor in the post-election period to allow the media to continue its work freely, without harassment, arrest or intimidation.

As an initiative of several concerned Kenyan bloggers ( KenyanPundit.com, WhiteAfrican.com, MentalAcrobatics.com, AfroMusing.com, Skunkworks), the website Ushahidi (swahili for witness) was launched. It gives witnesses of violence in Kenya, which started after the election, the possiblility to report them. Ushuahidi is in contact with several NGOs in Kenya in order to confirm those reports.

Witnesses can contact Ushahidi via internet or email (tips@ushahidi.com) or via mobil and sms (+447624802635).

Truth is the first step to reconciliation and peace. Please support Ushahidi by linking to their page (Buttons are available) and spreading the news via email and phone in Kenya.

Report Acts Of Violence In Kenya

An Online-Petition by the “Coalition of Kenyans and Allies for Democracy” with the title “Kibaki must step down” was already signed by more than 10.000 people. Many Blogs are linking to the side.
The Petition backround Text gives an overview about the irregularities during the election.

Interestingly, the homepage of the initiators of the Petition, the Kenyansfordemocracy-Blog, was removed by blogspots’ owner google. Trying to access the side, this text appears:

“This blog is in violation of Blogger’s Terms of Service and is open to authors only

If you are an author of this blog, tell us who you are!”

What is happening here? Does anybody have information about it?

A Kenya Red Cross volunteer, right, reacts as Kibera residents line up to receive food aid. Picture by Joseph Karoki

250,000 displaced persons, 500.000 people depending on food aid, hundreds of dead people and no sign of peace yet. Please support the Kenyan people and donate, for example to the Kenyan Red Cross. Please look up the appeal and the Bank account details on the Red Cross’s homepage.

Video by the Kenyan Red Cross

Please feel free to post other Donation Programs for Kenya by reliable Organisations in other countries, so that fees for international transactions do not apply. Post only links to the pages though, do not post any Bank account details here, and of course double check the organisation before you donate.

@ the Gedächtniskirche Berlin, Germany

For 4 days now, we have been looking for any groups politically or otherwise organized Kenyans in Berlin. We have made many calls, written to many organizations, but it seems that they are a rare breed. I have just come from a demonstration of Kenyans in Berlin seeking a way forward for the country. In total about 13 Kenyans turned up.

It got me thinking. Whenever we called/ wrote in our many inquiries, what we turned up were many politically and otherwise organized Nigerians and Camerounians but never once Kenya. Why is it so? I hypothesize that Kenyans have been much too peaceful to “warrant” organizing to raise their voices about issues. This has made them lose that important life-line of an organised voice taking on the face of tragedy/ political upheaval, or any other social or economic problems that could be addressed by that voice. Another hypothesis that scares me could be that they have adopted an ostrich attitude- head in the sand.

An analysis of the situation back in Kenya should ask of any concerned Kenyan to deliberate with others within such organizations on ways of addressing it from whichever countries they are in. Any effort that can yield albeit a little bit of fruit is worth attempting.