Cassandra: “Nation’s” Mutahi Ngunyi
While Cassandra foresaw the fall and destruction of the city of Troy (she warned the Trojans about the Trojan Horse, the death of Agamemnon and her own demise), she was unable to do anything to forestall these tragedies…No one believed her. They thought she was running mad.
And like Cassandra, 4 years ago, Nationmedia’s Mutahi Ngunyi foresaw the events leading upto 2007 general elections and beyond. If only we would have listened…
Sunday Nation, Dec 2003
Why our second liberation is yet to be completed
By MUTAHI NGUNYI
This week I want to give a suggestion to President Mwai Kibaki: He should fire his speechwriter! If we lived in a ”banana republic,” these people would have actually been charged with sabotage. What they gave the President to read on Jamhuri Day was flat and shoddy. In fact, his speech on this day sounded like recycled material from the Madaraka Day and Kenyatta Day addresses. And what is worrying is that his speechwriters did not even seem to notice the repetitions. The question we should ask here is why?The answer to this is simple: Maybe they also slept through the speeches! The long and short of things is therefore that someone is being negligent.
Let us now turn to the fact that the President has finally put his portrait on our currency. In my view, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. In fact, there would be nothing wrong if he put a family portrait on one of the currency notes.
What we must understand here is that President Kibaki is a human being. He has urges and excesses. To deny him some things is therefore ridiculous. It is like placing a pot full of honey in front of a little boy and expecting him not to dip his finger into the stuff! In other words, our new President is cuddling in the warmth and comfort of the institutions that shaped former President Daniel arap Moi. And, if this is the case, why should we be surprised if he ”hatched” into a dictator?
What we have witnessed in the last one year is the degeneration of President Kibaki from a reformer to a ”Toad King”. This process begins with the President becoming insensitive. At this point, he breaks one pledge after another without feeling a thing. And, as he does this, the question in his mind is: Where can you take me? In the case of the MoU for instance, we took him nowhere. The begrudged politicians yapped until the cows came home. Now the President has put his portrait on our currency and we will take him nowhere. The general attitude here is this: If you do not like it, you can sit on a pin!
Numbing his sense to popular voices will definitely degenerate into a state of paranoia. At this point, the President will make one blunder after another. And instead of correcting his mistakes, he will increase his speed in the direction of the wrong. This is where former President Moi was when he introduced ”Project Uhuru” to the country. The crowds booed him, his loyal followers in Kanu abandoned him and even his own people questioned his wisdom. But the more we rejected his ”project”, the more determined he became. There is a lesson for President Kibaki here. He is increasingly becoming like Mr Moi during the 2002 elections. He is not yet paranoid, but his insensitivity could develop into ”political blindness”. Who knows how low he will have sunk by the 2007 elections? And this is what worries me.
The prediction
Consider a hypothetical situation here. What would happen if President Kibaki decided to run for re-election in 2007 and lost? Would he and his men have the grace to hand over power peacefully? From the way they have behaved in the last one year, I doubt it. And where would that leave the country? At the risk of sounding crazy, I want to suggest the following: If we thought that Mr. Moi would plunge the country into civil strife, he proved us wrong. Narc is the party to plunge the country into civil strife. You just have to listen to the FM stations and the call-in television programmes to see a pattern. From the name of the caller, you can almost predict what they will say and what side of the divide they will take. In a disputed election, such polarity would certainly take ugly proportions.
But there are two possible ways out of this. The first one has to do with the agenda of the second liberation. This process was meant to achieve two things – to remove Mr. Moi from power and replace him with reform-minded leaders. This was done successfully. However, as we are beginning to realise, Mr. Moi was not the problem. The problem was the institutions he inherited from the Kenyatta. To change the leadership without changing the institutions is like treating cancer with Malaraquin. This is partly why the ”institutional cancer” in the presidency is beginning to affect President Kibaki.
Putting his portrait on our currency and junking the pre-election MoU are just manifestations of this cancer. This is why the other agenda of the second liberation was institutional reforms. Until this is completed, the second liberation will not have happened. More specifically, this refers to the constitutional review process. And, at this point I would want to address the delegates preparing for Bomas III on January 12, 2004 .
It is my hope that you have had time to reflect on the issues at hand in Bomas III. We are also told that the politicians have spent this long break to bribe you. In my view you should take the bribes and use the money to enjoy your Christmas. You must realise at this point that you are involved in politics and that in this game there is no morality. As such, you should have fun on someone else’s account! However, when it comes to voting, you must reject the ”bribe givers” and vote for the country.
This is important because of the following reasons. If the second liberation had two phases, the first phase of replacing the leadership had to be carried out by 3.1 million voters. Replacing Mr Moi and his cronies was in my view the easy part. The second phase is the tough one. And this is where you come in. You are only 600 people, and the future of our country depends on you. I have two questions for you at this point. One, as you vote for issues, will you be thinking of your ”tribal chief” or your children? In my view, your tribe is your children. If you make a constitution for your children, you will have made a constitutionfor Kenya .
Two, consider the question of the Prime Minister’s post. And the question to you is this: If this post had been created before the 2002 elections, do you think President Kibaki would have ”trashed” the MoU? Do you think he would have put his portrait on our currency and retained corrupt ministers in his Cabinet? If the answer to these questions is no, then the cure to the ”institutional cancer” in the presidency is the creation of this post. Do think about it! The second possible way out of civil strife has to do with the Kikuyu.
Now that the presidency has returned to the ”House of Mumbi”, some people from the community are convinced that it is there to stay. In my view, this kind of thinking is retrogressive and could result in ethnic animosity. Kikuyus should come to terms with the possibility that they could lose the presidency in 2007. As such, they should do two things: One, ”bank” with the other communities. This is important because they cannot survive alone in future. Two, they should disown the Kikuyu ‘’sharks” in the Kibaki government.
The grim forewarning
Unless they do so, the entire community will be blacklisted simply on account of a few people. In future, a Kikuyu presidential candidate would be rejected because of the misdeeds of isolated people. My submission therefore is: They should not support this regime blindly!
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[...] Eyes on Kenya wrote an interesting post today on Cassandra: "Nation’s" Mutahi NgunyiHere’s a quick excerptYou must realise at this point that you are involved in politics and that in this game there is no morality…. [...]
Pingback: Politics » Cassandra: “Nation’s” Mutahi Ngunyi – 16. January 2008 @ 3:13 pm
[...] Eyes on Kenya wrote an interesting post today on Cassandra: "Nation’s" Mutahi NgunyiHere’s a quick excerptAnd like Cassandry, 4 years ago, Nationmedia’s Mutahi Ngunyi foresaw the events leading upto 2007 general elections and beyond….And the question to you is this: If this post had been created before the 2002 elections, do you think President Kibaki would have ”t rashed” the MoU?…He is increasingly becoming like Mr Moi during the 2002 elections….In a disputed election, such polarity would certainly take ugly proportions…. [...]
Pingback: Election » Blog Archive » Cassandra: “Nation’s” Mutahi Ngunyi – 16. January 2008 @ 3:18 pm
I remember reading this piece in the Daily Nation in 2003 and laughing my eyes dry.What seemed of amusement to me then was the printing of Kibakis family on our currency and the thought of the big bodied politicians sitting on a pin.Everything else seemed out of space.
But now,seasoned, I can only nod after experiencing what Mutahi had forseen.
Kenyans now more divided than ever and the Kikuyus very isolated need to wake up from our deep slumber and responsibly take action.
1.Study,understand and change the constitution because our institutions are the ones sentencing us to the dictatorial leadership.
2.Adopt majimboism only after the constitution has been changed.The misunderstood concept of majimboism greatly contributed to the post election violence.
Without these changes,Raila will not effect any change or any other person elected into the position and Kenyans will always be on the streets with the same placards bearing different names over different regimes of gorvanance.
I believe that Raila and his pentagon outfit are best placed to effect changes in our constitution while in a strong opposition rather than a gorvening side.
Kibaki and his cronies will not satisfy the demands of all members on their side and they could shift to the opposition and strengthen it.
Other than that,we could only be drumming musical beats to a goat and expecting it to move to the rythm.
Comment: an – 18. January 2008 @ 12:01 pm
Reading and listening to political scientist,Mr Mutahi Ngunyi makes one think he is talking to an accomplished fortune teller.True to his words,its has come to pass Narc and not Kanu was the party to subject us to civil strive.Three years ago i listened to Mutahi Ngunyi in local radio talk show and i heard him say …”to the shock of many Kikuyus and pro kibaki cronies ,the 2007 elections will go Raila Ondinga way”…Meaning the one to win will either be Raila or whomever he would support.I kept my fists closed waiting to see…and true to his words,Raila won though the wolves snatched away the victory.
Cant wait to hear his next predictions.By the way where is this man lately?Mutahi Ngunyi,wherever you are please know we miss you articles,
Comment: adnahum – 20. January 2008 @ 10:51 am
It’s true desperate times calls for desperate measures, but Kenyan style of replicating the same leaves a lot to be desired.
It doesn’t make sense ,for our security forces to go around shooting and maiming any one they find on the way, in the name of restoring peace and order.I presume they all undergo a six month training at Kiganjo ,unless proved otherwise by a wiseman somewhere,so why don’t they apply professional ethics in curbing some of these vices.Like our very own P.L.O Lumumba once said ,”you can’t quench a mosquitoe bite by the fall of a hammer”,otherwise even your own hand will face the impact of the same ,for no particular reason.
So ,let justice prevail in all our institutions and even God in heaven will quench the calamities He has in store for us,in the name of punishmment.
Comment: hudson ngunyi ngatia – 13. March 2009 @ 3:01 pm
It’s true desperate times calls for desperate measures, but Kenyan style of replicating the same leaves a lot to be desired.
It doesn’t make sense ,for our security forces to go around shooting and maiming any one they find on the way, in the name of restoring peace and order.I presume they all undergo a six month training at Kiganjo ,unless proved otherwise by a wiseman somewhere,so why don’t they apply professional ethics in curbing some of these vices.Like our very own P.L.O Lumumba once said ,”you can’t quench a mosquitoe bite by the fall of a hammer”,otherwise even your own hand will face the impact of the same ,for no particular reason.
So ,let justice prevail in all our institutions and even God in heaven will quench the calamities He has in store for us,in the name of punishmment.
Comment: hudson ngunyi ngatia – 14. May 2009 @ 10:00 am
at last the man who will maiden Kenya out of the political recycling is starting to shape up and he may not be aware of it himself. can somebody wake Prof. James Ole Kiyiapi to take up the presidency in 2012? we need a man of integrety like him. i will be his suporter no.
Charles J Sangalo
Comment: Charles J Sangalo – 19. October 2009 @ 8:34 pm
The current constitution does not provide any guidance regarding the MPs’ salaries; a phenomenon that the honourable members have exploited and enriched themselves as the gap between the rich and the poor escalates everyday.
The same current constitution does not provide any guidelines on how big the cabinet should be. And so, while helping draft this new constitution that is yet to be taken to the referendum, the CoE identified the potential abuse of power by the cabinet’s appointing authority and thus included a clause that cushions the nation against such potential abuse when appointing members of the cabinet. Should this new constitution be adopted after the referendum, according to the clause, the president will not have a cabinet larger than 24 and less than 15 officials. That was fantastic and visionary.
However, while the MPs’ remuneration has been an issue bothering Kenyans and debated by all, the very MPs have not been ’sufficiently philanthropic’ to stop awarding themselves inflated untaxed benefits despite our convulsing economy. The new constitution is silent about this life long struggle for our economy and I think the same approach should have been adopted, like I had mentioned in my comments to the CoE during the time they were collecting and collating views from the public. But this has been overlooked either deliberately by design or otherwise incompetently while jeopardizing our future parliamentary remuneration trends to the detriment of the general Kenyan economy.
Someone may argue that the Salaries & Remuneration Commission will deal with that but such a commission will have to need some checks and balances as regards its operational threshold. As it is now, this commission has been given a signed blank cheque at the expense of the tax payer. The same reasoning that was invoked while addressing the size of the cabinet should have guided the CoE to provide the limits. And in this case, I have suggested, like it is done elsewhere like in the UK, Canada, South Africa, New Zealand, to tie the representatives’ income, both for the August House and the devolved governments’ to the minimum wage in the country. Whenever they raise their salaries or the relevant commission does so, the minimum wage earners must also receive a proportional increase as well. After all, inflation affects every Kenyan across the board.
Others might argue that we can just pass this constitution and then amend it later, but we will need the MPs to cause the amendments to happen yet none of them will be willing to scale down or institute any controls on their income, going by the 10 parliaments’ attitude towards their income. This is thus, the common man’s only time and moment to do so. But we cannot achieve this by voting the document down; it will be cost prohibitive to do so. That is why I am seeking a court injunction for the IIEC to put on hold their preparation for the referendum and a court order directing the CoE to get back to work and capture that clause before subjecting the document to the referendum.
This is a contest between patriotism and political correctness and if it is not addressed, we will effectively continue digging the same hole. Only deeper. I know I will never earn minimum wage in Kenya but I choose integrity and thus with patriotism urge you and the rest of your networks to pay attention to this phenomenon.
Thanks a lot and as you ponder on this, I pray that God clears your mind of any impediment to the truth and proven patriotism in defense of Kenya ’s future generations.
Moses Marango
Bumula Constituency
Comment: Moses Marango – 08. April 2010 @ 7:10 pm