Eyes on Kenya

ACTING TOGETHER FOR KENYA: AGREEMENT ON THE PRINCIPLES OF PARTNERSHIP OF THE COALITION GOVERNMENT.

Preamble:

The crisis triggered by the 2007 disputed presidential election has brought to the surface deep-seated and long-standing divisions within Kenyan society. If left unaddressed, these divisions threaten the very existence of Kenya as a unified country. The Kenyan people are now looking to their leaders to ensure that their country will not be lost.

Given the current situation, neither side can realistically govern the country without the other. There must be real power-sharing to move the country forward and begin the healing and reconciliation process.

With this agreement, we are stepping forward together, as political leaders, to overcome the current crisis and to set the country on a new path. As partners in a coalition government, we commit ourselves to work together in good faith as true partners, through constant consultation and willingness to compromise.

This agreement is designed to create an environment conducive to such a partnership and to build mutual trust and confidence. It is not about creating positions that reward individuals. It seeks to enable Kenya's political leaders to look beyond partisan considerations with a view to promoting the greater interests of the nation as a whole. It provides the means to implement a coherent and far-reaching reform agenda, to address the fundamental root causes of recurrent conflict, and to create a better, more secure, more prosperous Kenya for all.

To resolve the political crisis, and in the spirit of coalition and partnership, we have agreed to enact the National Accord and Reconciliation Act 2008, whose provisions have been agreed upon in their entirety by the parties hereto and a draft copy is appended hereto.

Its key points are:

* There will be a Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya, with authority to coordinate and supervise the execution of the functions and affairs of the Government of Kenya.

* The Prime Minister will be an elected member of the National Assembly and the parliamentary leader of the largest party in the National Assembly, or of a coalition, if the largest party does not command a majority.

* Each member of the coalition shall nominate one person from the National Assembly to be appointed a Deputy Prime Minister.

* The Cabinet will consist of the President, the Vice-President, the Prime Minister, the two Deputy Prime Ministers and the other Ministers. The removal of any Minister of the coalition will be subject to consultation and concurrence in writing by the leaders.

* The Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Ministers can only be removed if the National Assembly passes a motion of no confidence with a majority vote.

* The composition of the coalition government will at all times take into account the principle of portfolio balance and will reflect their relative parliamentary strength.

* The coalition will be dissolved if the Tenth Parliament is dissolved; or if the parties agree in writing; or if one coalition partner withdraws from the coalition.

* The National Accord and Reconciliation Act shall be entrenched in the Constitution.

Having agreed on the critical issues above, we will now take this process to Parliament. It will be convened at the earliest moment to enact these agreements. This will be in the form of an Act of Parliament and the necessary amendment to the Constitution.

We believe by these steps we can together in the spirit of partnership bring peace and prosperity back to the people of Kenya who so richly deserve it.

Source: Reuters AlertNet 

President Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga Thursday signed a deal that will see them share power through the creation of a Prime Minister position.

The deal, brokered by Africa Union chairman President Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania and Mr Kofi Annan, will see the creation of a grand coalition sharing power according to party strength in Parliament.

The deal provides that the PM will coordinate and supervise Ministers, while Cabinet positions will be shared proportionally according to party strength in Parliament.

The President will have the authority to sack Cabinet members, but only with written agreement from leaders of the respective coalition party.

The Cabinet will comprise the President, the Vice-President, the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Ministers and Ministers.

The coalition will collapse at the end of the current Parliament, or if the parties so agree, or if one partner withdraws.

The signing at Nairobi’s Harambee House was witnessed by diplomats and broadcast live on national television.

President Kibaki and Mr Odinga first signed the agreement, then President Kikwete and Mr Annan appended their signatures as witnesses.

The agreement was the result of a five-hour meeting chaired by President Kikwete involving Mr Annan, President Kibaki and Raila Odinga.

And this is how Kofi Anan explains the deal:

But let us not forget, how it sounded just some days ago:

Still, the coalition depends on the good will of the protagonists. It is a deal between Odinga and Kibaki, but there are many more characters who want their share of the deal. As soon as there is no Kofi Anan in Kenya anymore, the Coalition will become fragile. It all depends how much issues will be dealt with in next weeks before it comes into a standstill.

As we previously reported, the 27^th of February is an international day of of public and online action in solidarity with the people of Kenya and to call on the Kenyan government to protect people from politically-motivated and ethnic violence.

Amnesty International is organizing streets demonstrations in the following locations on 27 February. Turn up and show your support...

Africa

Kampala, Uganda, 12:30 pm, Kololo Airstrip, corner of Wampewo Rd and Upper Kololo Terrace. A joint action with Amnesty International and the East and Horn of Africa Human Rights Defenders Project.

Americas

Washington DC, USA, 4:30-6:30pm, 27 February, - outside the Kenyan Embassy, 2249 R. Street N.W in Dupont Circle

Denver, Colorado, USA, (the sister city of Nairobi, Kenya), 6pm, 27 February, West Steps of the Capitol - Candlelight Vigil for the People of Kenya: Support Human Rights and Peace Now! [Please Bring a Flashlight or Lighter]

Los Angeles, USA, 4:30 pm, 27 February, Vigil at the Kenyan Consulate, Park Mile Plaza, Mezzanine Floor, 4801 Wilshire Boulevard

Montevideo, Uruguay, 27 February, 6.30 pm, Rambla Rep. Argentina

Mexico City, Mexico, 27 February, 18.00 - 21.00, outside Mexico City Cultural Centre [a vigil, 3 African bands and a slideshow of photos from Kenya]

Ottawa, Canada, 27 February, 4.00pm, High Commission of the Republic of Kenya, 415 Laurier Avenue East - intersection of King Edward and Laurier

Asia-Pacific

Melbourne, Australia, 6pm, Parliament House steps, East Melbourne, join us for a vigil with our message calling to: PROTECT THE PEOPLE OF KENYA

Canberra, Australia, 1pm, in front of the Kenyan Embassy, QBE Building, 33-35 Ainslie St, Civic Square. We will be writing letters to the Kenyan government in solidarity with the Kenyan people to bring an end to the violence.

Brisbane, Australia, 4pm, Reddacliffe Place, George St, Brisbane, join us for a vigil to reach out to Kenya, and have a look at our giant hand!

Europe

London, UK, 17:00 to 19:00 pm, outside the Kenyan Embassy, 45 Portland Place, W1B 1AS

Belfast, UK, 28 February, 6:30pm, Club Rooms 3 and 4, Queens University Belfast Student Union, University Road

Berlin, Germany, 27 February, 17.30 -19.30, Kenyan Embassy, MARKGRAFENSTR.63

Netherlands - events are planned in Haarlem, Rijswijk, Hoorn, Harmelen/Leidsche Rijn and Amsterdam, please contact Amnesty International's Netherlands section for more information.

According to a press release from the International Medical Corps (IMC), Kenya could face a serious food shortage and subsequent large-scale malnutrition in the coming year if insecurity persists. International Medical Corps (IMC) is concerned that a shortage of maize production during 2008 and long-term displacement could severely affect the nutritional status, general health, and livelihood of the displaced as well as that of the general population. According to the Kenyan Red Cross almost 270,000 displaced are currently living in camps. A similar number is thought to be living with host families. Most of the forcibly displaced have not only lost their homes and belongings but also their economic base, which was destroyed in the violence.

“At the moment we are mainly concerned about the well-being of pregnant women, lactating mothers and children under five years old in the camps and among the host community,” says Kristi Ladd, International Medical Corps Nutrition Specialist and advisor to the emergency response team. “These groups are most likely to be the first to show signs of malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. We must have a screening and support system in place to detect malnutrition and start further interventions.”

The current situation demands continued nutritional and food security monitoring to enable aid agencies to anticipate threats and catch cases of wasting and other indications of malnutrition early on. Health providers must coordinate with agencies currently distributing food to make sure that at-risk patients are identified and are receiving supplementary food if necessary.

International Medical Corps will implement a multi-tiered approach and incorporate nutritional services into its ongoing primary health care programs. The moderately malnourished will be provided with supplemental food. Severely malnourished patients will receive ready-to-use-therapeutic-food (RUTF) either at IMC facilities or in community-based programs. International Medical Corps may also support existing facilities and government referral hospitals to ensure that malnourished patients receive the necessary care.

A Long-Term Problem
According to preliminary assessments by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Kenyan farmers are already far behind in soil preparation. In the fertile Rift Valley, post-election violence forced at least 180,000 to flee their homes — more than half of the total displaced population in the country — many of them small holdings owners or farm workers. The area, normally producing about 70 percent of Kenya’s maize crop, is still gripped in an uneasy truce between hostile communities.

With the beginning of the planting season just weeks away, many farmers will not be able to return to their plots in time. In conversations with the displaced, International Medical Corps learned that many crop growers also saw their remaining harvest stolen and their land now being farmed by members of rival groups. This development could further worsen community relations and make it unlikely that the forcibly displaced will be able to return and catch up with the planting season, which usually starts in March.

“More and more factors are emerging that threaten to prolong the humanitarian crisis in Kenya, and food insecurity is one of them,” says Edi Cosic, International Medical Corps Director of Emergency Response. “Kenyans might need our support in more sectors and for a longer period of time than initially anticipated.”

Media reports quote a joint report soon to be released by the U.N and US Agency for International Development (USAID), anticipating that 100,000 hectares may not be cultivated for the March rainy season and estimating losses of 300,000 tons of various crop harvests.

Displaced and Host Communities Affected

Most likely, increased food insecurity and malnourishment will not only affect the displaced but also the population as a whole, particularly the urban slum dwellers and households that have taken in displaced family members. The complete loss of their economic base puts significant pressure on host families, which often have to get by with a marginal amount of food while also having more mouths to feed.

The violence has also increased transport and farm supply costs, sharply raising wholesale and retail prices. The very poor and less mobile, in particular, feel the effect of rising prices.

[...]

On march 13^th the German newspaper “die Tageszeitung”, also known as “taz” organizes an information evening in Hamburg. Those invited are the former Director of the Hamburg based “Institut für Afrikakunde” - Prof. Rolf Hofmeier, the taz journalist Ulrike Herrmann, Ralph Peters who observed the elections and Yvonne Atieno. It will be moderated by Jan Kahlcke from taz at the “Kulturhaus”, Schulterblatt 73, starting at 8 o'clock at night.

Judging from the guests, it would be worth to attend if you live in Hamburg. But the newspaper is running the even under the title: Kenia - Blutbad im Urlaubsparadies (Kenya – Bloodbath in the vacation paradise)! How can someone like Prof. Hofmeier put his respected name under such a cheap tabloid title? The title makes it impossible to recommend the event.

Many articles in the Kenyan “blogosphere” (see chart below), local and international media have been written about the post-election crisis. The numbers reach into their thousands. This article tries to give an overview about good articles with background information on Kenya and the current political crisis. It is just a selection and we are sure that we may have missed many good ones. It is just the beginning and we will try to keep it updated, so if you see any good ones that would fit into this page, please use the comment function to add them.

(Topics in alphabetical order)

Constitution

The Draft Constitution of Kenya, known as the Boma’s draft, was adopted by the National Constitutional Conference on 15th of march 2004.

Economy
“The potential impact of economic sanctions on the Kenyan government” takes a closer look at the Kenyan economy and delivers useful statistics and numbers.

The Reuter’s fact box gives an overview about the “Aid to Kenya”, the CIA fact book delivers more economic figures.

“Eyes on the World Bank and Kibaki’s economy” takes a closer look at the economic program of Kibaki’s government and at the World Bank’s interest in Kenya.

Ethnic Violence

Antony Otieno Ong’ayo, a researcher at the Transnational Institute, Amsterdam, gives “An overview of the underlying factors” of “The Post-election Violence in Kenya” at Pambazuka News. It is detailed and gives a great historic overview as well .

“Unearthing of the sources of tribal disagreements and ethno-politics in Kenya” takes a closer look at the historic background of tribalism in Kenya.

The US biased NGO Human Rights Watch published a report about the involvement of opposition politicians in the preparation of the Rift valley violence. “Kenya: Opposition Officials Helped Plan Rift Valley Violence” was published on January 24th 2008.

Health
The article “The effect of the Kenyan crisis on Kenya’s health system” tries to summarize the struggles to keep up the Kenyan health system in this time of crisis. It also refers to an article by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs IRIN “KENYA: Healthcare threatened by political crisis”

International Medical Corps addresses the issue “Risk of Long-Term Food Insecurity and Malnutrition” in Kenya.

Land distribution

The Africa Policy Institute published a report by Horace Njuguna Gisemba named “The Lie of the land: Evictions and Kenya’s crisis”. It takes a closer look at the history of land distribution and ownership in the Rift valley and disputes the often heard argument of “land distribution” as the underlying cause for the killings. It is controversally discussed at the Kenya imagine.

Media

Reuter’s alertnet posted an article by Joanne Tomkinson called “MEDIAWATCH: Kenyan media inciting ethnic hatred” on Februray 7th 2008. It deals with the local radio stations promoting ethnic hatred.

Humanitarian news and analysis (IRIN) also writes about “Spreading the word of hate” .

John Barbieri, an independent reporter and the founder of the US Coalition for Peace with Truth and Justice in Kenya writes about the “The poverty of international journalism”.

Simiyu Barasa, a member of the Coalition of Concerned Kenyan Writers, wrote an essay on “War journalism: Kenya’s newest tourist attraction” on the kwani blog. Barasa picks up the concept of “peace journalism” by the Norwegian Scholar John Galtun and shows how the local media tries to use their influence to promote peace and fails due to an international “war journalism”. He gives examples how cameras create stories and that media attention is only drawn by violence. This is done by the very same media cooperation which thought it was their responsibility not to show any cruel pictures after 9/11 and during the Iraq war.

The Foreign Correspondents’ Association of East Africa (FCAEA) strongly condemned the violation of press freedoms and intimidation of journalists on January 19t.

Political Parties
The Mukoma Wa Ngugi analysis on the differences within the Orange Democratic Movement and the different political approaches by its leaders. “Understanding the Kenyan Opposition” brings to light the differences between the activist-intellectual left, the Moi-ist retrogressives, and the populists within the party.

“Eyes on Kenyan Political Parties: A call for change” looks at the historic background of Kenya’s Parties and the lack of their political profiles.

In the publication “Political Succession in East Africa – In Search for a Limited Leadership” by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Dr. Katumanga Musambayi wrote the chapter: “After the floods – The Rainbow: Contextualising NARC’s election victory – Lessons learnt and the challenges ahead”. It was published in 2006 and gives an overview about the prior election in 2002.

Power-sharing

The full text of the power-sharing deal was signed by Kibaki and Odinga on February 28th 2008.

Religion
Despite the fact that the different religious communities play an important role in Kenya's society, we have not found any deeper analysis on the role of the churches to promote peace and their role in finding a conflict solution.

United States of America

Here we are still looking for a good article, that analyses the change in the US policies towards the Kibaki government.

Our early analysis on the “The role of the US Department of State in the aftermath of Kenyan Election” sees a change in US policies as the results of a learning process due to the mistakes made in the 2005 Ethiopian election.

Patrick Mutahi asks the Question”What is America's stake in this?” and explains their interest according to their “war on terror” policies.

Women's rights
The “Women’s Memorandum to the Mediation Team” was published on Pambazuka News. It was written by the “Kenyan Women's Consultation Group on the Current Crisis in Kenya” a group of women from various backgrounds who met to discuss a solution to the crisis. Among other important points it stresses the importance of women participation in the finding of conflict solutions adhereing to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325.

"Violence and women in Kenya" portraits the Kenyans Prof. Wangari Maathai, Dekha Ibrahim Abdi and Gladwell Otieno and takes a closer look at violence against female candidates in the pre-election period.

Again: If you know other background articles on the current situation in Kenya, please use the comment function or the "Contact Page" to add them. If you leave a comment you have the option to be notified for any further comments.

According to Standard : There could be (could have been) a real possibility, that the two rival groups are edging closer to a power sharing deal, understood to be the creation of the office of a Prime Minister and two deputies, even as the Presidency and the Vice Presidency are retained.

However, this seemingly positive development was overshadowed by statements by President Kibaki and Party of National Unity MPs and ministers, who appeared to pour cold water on real power sharing.
“It can’t be an illusion, power sharing must be real,” US Secretary of State Condeleezza Rice on Monday told PNU and ODM — the two protagonists in the disputed and discredited presidential election.

PNU opposed to PM Post
But on Tuesday, Government negotiators and MPs attending a PNU Parliamentary Group meeting fought the proposed power sharing and pushed for “accommodating or co-opting” ODM into Government. The MPs and President Kibaki appeared to speak in one voice as they argued against a quick power-sharing deal as pressed for by Rice in Nairobi.
The Government insisted that any deal must be worked out within the current Constitution, and any other arrangement would have to follow later through constitutional reforms.

It was understood that the Government side is set with its position to accommodate ODM into Government as opposed to an ODM proposal that wants a split of Cabinet positions and the creation of the post of an executive prime minister.
Lead negotiator, Kofi Annan, left the Serena Hotel in the heat of the stand-off and went to Harambee House mid afternoon for a scheduled meeting with President Kibaki. After President Kibaki’s meeting with Annan, State House issued a statement which avoided the mention of ‘power-sharing’ but which only said the President had assured Annan that he was ready to “share responsibilities” with ODM.

The President, however, cautioned that any political solution that will be proposed must be in tandem with the current Kenyan Constitution,” part of the PPS statement read.

Conclusion
It seems Kibaki is up in arms with manipulation as he did post-2002 elections when he refused to honour NARC’s memorandum of understanding. Whenever I listen to him speak about “ any deal must be worked out within the current Constitution, and any other arrangement would have to follow later through constitutional reforms” my hackles rise because there will never be constitutional reforms under Kibaki. To swallow this again from him would be like getting kicked in the face once an turning the other side for another kick while still lying on the ground.

I echo Rice’s statement that power-sharing cannot be an illusion, it must be real.

According to Reuters, Kofi Annan, reporting on progress at this week’s talks, also said it was essential for the parties to form a “broad coalition” to agree on constitutional and electoral reforms going forward.

There has been optimism during the arduous task that Kofi Annan has taken upon himself in ensuring a peaceful transition and one with accord to propel Kenya from the post-election quagmire. This optimism is contagious and is slowly affecting me. However, I still retain that a lot has to be considered and changed within the political environment between those involved and Kenyans in general. This is based on an analysis of the facts surrounding the nature and evolution of political parties in post-independence Kenya.

Political Parties: A History

After independence Kenya came up with a constitution that vested enormous powers in the presidency. This included all executive power and he could appoint and fire ministers, senior administrative officers and heads of parastatal organisations. The president was also the leader of the ruling party and equally wielded enormous powers. As a result presidents were habitually re-elected, a phenomenon we now see in most of Africa of perpetual incumbency.

Post-independence KANU, especially under the rule of Moi, had always opposed a multi-party democracy using every means possible; from constitutional changes to the provincial administration, the registrar of societies, the attorney-general and courts of laws, the police and hired KANU youth wingers. In 1982, the attempts by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and George Anyona to found their own party was dealt with by a Constitution Amendment Act outlawing any legal opposition. Moi used the 1982 Coup attempt to rally loyal ethnic followers especially in the military and the police by purging it of those who would be a threat to him, successfully ethnicising it: a preacher of condemnation of ethnicism but in reality a champion of one. Detentions, deaths of more than 200 people and disappearances, the massacre of more than 3000 Somali Muslims at Wagalla airstrip by the military, all point to this fact.

Other civil society groups and organisations that Moi perceived would turn political were banned, this extending to the budding football clubs of Gor Mahia and AFC Leopards. He essentially and effectively killed opposition from civil society, leaving one full of fear, one that could not be a base for effective grounding of political parties.

During the 1990 period however, and with reference to May 1990, Kenneth Matiba and Charles Rubia were the names behind the campaigns opposing single party rule (eventually detained for their efforts) and offered much hope in multi-party political arena. December 1991 however brought Moi’s accession to change and reintroduction of multi-party politics, albeit due to extreme pressure and riots.

Matiba and Rubia’s efforts resulted in the formation of a broad coalition FORD (Forum for the Restoration of Democracy). This barely lasted a year before breaking up into FORD-Kenya headed by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and FORD-Asili by Kenneth Matiba, the latter which brokered a KNC (Kenya National Congress) spin off from it. A Prof. Abdilatif Abdala, advising one of the protagonists, would later say that they were too busy after the lifted sanction, euphorically forming (naming) political parties than laying ground for formation of political ideologies that would give strong foundations to their parties. And so political parties were formed, fragmented, spun off from each other without any guiding political principle.

“Maendeleo” (development(s)) was the catch phrase that the political parties used to woo Kenyan voters. However since lessons from the the then ruling party had taught the populace that ‘maendeleo’ essentially meant a patronage of state resources that would veer into their direction, they swallowed it hook, line and sinker, for want of being among the beneficiaries. It was a reward system that could be understood as an ethnic economic advantage as seen during the Kenyatta’s KANU regime, soon followed by the Moi’s KANU regime. This fragmentation of parties would also mean that the minds of the politicians likewise would veer in that direction each only sure about the potential votes of his community. Their expectations were of course, to be proven unrealistic.

Meanwhile, Moi was having a ball. Having the hindsight of these events, he took advantage of this fragmentation and introduced in July 1992, the 25% rule Bill, which stipulated that a winning candidate at the presidential election garners 25% in at least 5 of the 8 electoral provinces. Moi’s calculation here was that the opposition could be manipulated into disintegration along ethnic lines, making it impossible for it to beat KANU, a fact. This led to a disillusionment of the political class, distanced from objective reality, cutting deals with Moi to stay in power, thus weakening any political parties in the opposition. The ethnicity still stayed strong, and as long as they were trapped in their ethnic cocoons, Moi was happy. NDP had its support among the Luo, DP among the Kikuyu, Ford Kenya among the Luhya, the rest too small to bother him.

1997 general elections would see a realisation by KANU that the situation was not as rosy, that they would have to initiate an attempt at coalition talks with other parties. This change was brought about by James Orengo’s “Muungano wa Mageuzi” (Coalition for change), an across the ethnic strata group with similar agenda-demystifying the ideas of regional lords, and had extremely high popularity and support from the university student political groups. It was considered a serious threat. KANU sought out Kibaki’s Democratic Party (DP), then later on Odinga’s National Democratic Party (NDP). Mageuzi did raise a lot of hell, captured the public but failed. It lacked the essential ingredient of organising ideology, did not propel a leader effectively, and their goal of overhauling the state by mass revolt insurrection failed. Orengo killed it further by being too quick in shifting to Social Democratic Party (SDP).

President Moi casts his vote in the December 1997 election (c) BBC

Pre-2002 general election saw the emergence of “Breakfast coalition talks” by FORD Kenya (Wamalwa Kijana), DP (Mwai Kibaki) and NPK (Charity Ngilu) as a united front to get rid of Moi. These however were not fruitful because each of the three (with pressure from their constituents) wanted to vie for presidency and neither was ready to give in to another. However,it was enough to ruffle KANU’s feathers. Moi’s anointed successor Uhuru Kenyatta (who would enable him to continue in the post of party chairman) and it was at this point that he saw he was fighting a losing battle when he was heckled and pelted with stones in Nyanza, Nairobi and Western Province in his campaign endeavors for Uhuru. Finally the coalition of opposition around NARC with Mwai Kibaki as opposition candidate won the day, with an eventually small opposition in Kanu.

Moi and Uhuru Kenyatta by Gado

NARC evolved structures that would help organise her campaign. It set up what become known as the Summit which exemplified the emerging coalition of social groups in Kenya for national unity.
It also came up with a memorandum of understanding binding the winner to practice politics of inclusion and consultation with the other senior members of the coalition. The two NAK and Rainbow coalition partners were to share positions at a ratio of 50-50.

According to a Friedrich-Ebert Publication: To the entire nation, it was apparent that while Mwai Kibaki would be president, Raila Odinga would emerge Prime Minister following a speeded up constitution drafting process. Had the promises been honoured , it would have meant the diffusion of power among various actors and by inference the regions. However, once elections were over, and this faction had gained power, the motivation to honour their pledges dissipated. Facilitating this was the fact that the so-called Memorandum of Understanding which was negotiated outside existing state structures and was based on a mere trust, something rare among a begrudged elite faction used to politics of exclusivism. Before long the Ethnic group becomes veritable competitor to the State in its attempts to command loyalty. Unfortunately, this accentuates divisions among different ethnic groups. To cut across ethnic divide, elite merely seek to organize alliances which seek to facilitate the capture of power and in the process, access to State resources. With NARC dead, an effort towards putting into place a new coalition of parties was in the offing in the name of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

Understanding the nature of current political parties: The case of ODM

According to Mukoma wa Ngugi, asking some of the people commentating on Kenya about the differences within ODM, whether it’s a coalition or a party with a single vision, who are the main players, and the implications for peace, will yield shallow answers. Its indescribable according to an ideology, nothing compared to the clear cut differences as exist in the case say of US internal politics in the Democratic Party’s Hillary and Osama. He continues to ask “How can we agitate for peace when we do not understand the nature of the parties involved?”

There are three competing elements within ODM: the activist-intellectual left(Prof. AnyangAnyang’ Nyong’o and Salim Lone), the Moi-ist retrogressives (William Ruto), and the populists (Raila Odinga). The Moi-ist retrogressives have cost ODM a lot of political mileage. They are seen as having been responsible for ethnic violence that in 1992 and 1997 left hundreds dead and thousands displaced in the Rift Valley. The recent Eldoret church burning and cleansing took place in Ruto’s constituency. William Ruto is leading the ODM delegation in the Kofi Annan mediated talks. Raila has a solid Luo support base and youth appeal across ethnicity. Had ODM not run a campaign along ethnic fault lines, his support amongst the poor would have been solidified. Raila has all the contradictions that come with populism. Populists prefer loud rallies and protests. They want to draw violence from the state because the consequent anger unites the people and earns then international political mileage. Populists also like to “shock and awe” but end up sending mixed calls.

Mukoma further notes that a closer analysis of the two political parties finds that they are mirror image of each other. They both represent the elite of their different ethnicities, and they manipulate ethnicity to hide their bankruptcy. The prevailing ideology is ethnocracy.
He says that at the very least both the government and the opposition need to let their respective Moi-ist retrogressives go. When both sides are not swayed by the extremists, a return to the center where sanity prevails will be possible, and a political solution within grasp.

Conclusion
The lessons to be drawn from the Kenyan experience are several and include the observation that political parties in East Africa are generally fragile, lack a national outlook, are not driven by clearly differing ideologies in the context of the same State, and woefully lack a viable resource base. Kenya needs a fresh start in conceiving, feeding and maturing political parties that differentiated from each other in terms of ideology, a critical fact that would take them away from the current ethno-based party quagmire they are entrenched into. We need political parties not ethno-representatives.

Kenya’s President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga had a surprise visitor this week — a high-ranking politician from German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s grand coalition.

Gernot Erler, Germany’s deputy foreign minister, was secretly flown into Kenya at the request of Kofi Annan, former UN Secretary-General who is mediating between Kenya’s warring factions to resolve a crisis sparked by Kibaki’s disputed re-election last December.

Annan had turned to German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier to ask for an expert to assist in talks between Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PNU) and Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Steinmeier entrusted the job to Erler.

Gernod Erler

Erler’s task was to explain the workings of Merkel’s grand coalition between her center-right Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, of which the minister is a member.

My visit was a surprise to all,” Erler told German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung on the last day of his mission. “But then everyone was really interested and had a lot of questions.”

Erler said his job was to explain the complicated arithmetic underlying the power-sharing model in Germany and how such a consensus-based system worked. Germany’s grand coalition came into being after federal elections in 2005, ending two months of political uncertainty after Merkel’s conservatives won a wafer-thin majority.

“My job was to present the model so that the Kenyans can see if a similar system could work for them,” Erler said. The minister had also brought along an English version of Germany’s coalition agreement with him so that the Kenyans could spend time studying it.

The German Coalition

Of course, it is hard to find similarities between the Kenyan crisis today and the post election situation in Germany in 2005. With more than 1000 lost lives lost and more than 300.000 displaced persons, the gaps to over come are tremendous.

Still, in order to look for a conflict solution it is worth to look at the concept of a “grand coalition”, when it makes sense to and whether it lasts.

A “grand coalition” is usually not the preferred model in a parliamentary democracy. The only exception for many years is the oldest democracy in the world: Switzerland. Here, government positions were distributed according to the seats in the Parliament. It worked because of a unique democratic culture, in which the will of power-sharing and consensus decisions are high valued. The position of the head of government was rotated among the ministers. The system worked only as long as Politicians respected certain rules and it failed when the eccentric right wing populist billionaire Blocher broke the political consensus by campaigning with a brutal anti-Immigrants campaign. He crossed the line and forced the other Parties to unite against him. It showed how much the system was depending on the acceptance of democratic rules by Politicians.

The 2005 German general election ended up in a Parliamentary “deadlock” situation. The ruling coalition of chancellor Schröder’s SPD and the Grüne Party lost their majority. But Merkel’s CDU/CSU did not reach more than 50% together with their preferred partner FDP. The 614 seats of Parliament were distributed as follows: SPD 222, CDU 180, CSU 46, Grüne 51, FDP 61 and the Linke 54.

Right after the election both Merkel and Schröder claimed to have the mandate to form the government. Schröder claimed to be the head of the biggest Party in Parliament. Since CDU and CSU are partners, Merkel had was head of the biggest Party group (The CSU is a Bavarian tribalist version of the CDU).

The preliminary condition for the German grand coalition to work was that one had to step down from this position. It was for sure that chancellor Schröder would not take any other position in the government than that of Chancellor and the CDU/CSU would have never accepted a non CDU/CSU chancellor. In order to start negotiations SPD had to call upon Schröder to resign.

Another factor was Angela Merkel. She was much more accepted by the SPD as a chancellor of grand coalition than some other CDU/CSU politicians. Edmund Stoiber, who ran in the previous election for CDU/CSU would have not been accepted by the SPD.

“It is a Grand Coaltion, if it does not move in any direction .” (c) suika

Both Parties are currently not happy about the situation. Every controversial issue, every local election becomes a test how much the coalition can take. Even though the government has a comfortable majority in both Parliament houses, great changes have not been made and issues like the reform of the health system have not been toughed. Both partners announced they do not want to continue the coalition after the next general election.

A German like “grand coalition” is not a good solution, but sometimes may be the only possibility. It works only if both partners step down from radical positions and verbal attacks. It cannot be a solution for a long period and most important is that the crucial changes are made immediately.

One lesson might be learned from another German “grand coalition”. In 1968 protest grew against the SPD/CDU/CSU coalition and ended up in a the formation of the “Out of Parliament opposition” and the growth of a political civil society. This is something that might help the Kenyan political development as well.

Amnesty International urges Kenya’s leaders to ensure the human rights of Kenyan people are protected.

An international day of public and online action this month will demonstrate solidarity with the people of Kenya and call on the Kenyan government to protect people from politically-motivated and ethnic violence.

On 27 February, people can show their outrage at the continuing human rights abuses in Kenya in a series of events organised by Amnesty International; including an online Facebook action and a series of street demonstrations.

The disputed election of 27 December 2007 sparked an outbreak of fighting and a series of grave human rights violations. At least 1,000 people have been killed so far, while more than 300,000 have been displaced.

Amnesty International’s recent visit to Kenya found evidence of unlawful killings, the ethnically targeted forced relocation and burning of homes by armed militias, excessive use of force by security officials, sexual violence against women and girls, and violations of freedom of expression and assembly. Amnesty International has also documented death threats against human rights defenders and activists.

The death toll includes hundreds shot dead by police, who were deployed to quell the post-election violence and break up mass protests against the election called by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) opposition party.

Subsequent violence has seen increasingly organised attacks by ethnic militia and youth gangs against people of Kikuyu ethnicity, which has led to retaliatory attacks by Kikuyu militias and youth gangs.

There is particular concern at the ethnic dimension to the political violence and its possible long-term implications for Kenyan society.

Amnesty International calls on the Kenyan government to protect the people of Kenya, many of whom have endured unrelenting suffering in the last two months. Kenyan leaders must end the cycle of impunity that perpetuates the politically motivated violence in Kenya.